2023 Real Estate Forecast
Well, we did it! We survived 2022!! What a roller coaster of a year.
Before we dive into what’s to come in the upcoming New Year I’d like to give a heartfelt thank you to my family, friends, clients and colleagues for all your help and support throughout this tumultuous year. It has been a whirlwind of Real Estate highs and lows, as many of you have experienced first-hand. Thank you for your trust!
Now, let’s look ahead to 2023 and see what the future has in store for us.
Over the next few paragraphs this blog will discuss:
- Interest Rates and their effect on Real Estate
- How these rate changes directly affect the Hamilton & Burlington Real Estate Market
- A look ahead to what to expect for 2023
Lets talk about Interest Rates…
Why is the Bank of Canada raising interest rates?
In short, they believe this is their best tool to curb rising inflation. Inflation is the measure of the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and is typically measured as an annual percentage increase.
Raising interest rates is one of the tools that central banks, such as the Bank of Canada, can use to combat rising inflation. When the central bank raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow money, which can slow down spending and investment. This can help to reduce demand for goods and services, which in turn can help to keep prices from rising too quickly.
How Interest Rates Effect Real Estate
Impact on Housing Demand:
When interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive to borrow money to buy a home. This can make it more difficult for potential buyers to afford a mortgage, leading to a decrease in demand for properties. As demand decreases, the price of homes may also fall as sellers try to attract buyers.
Buyers need some time to adjust to the new rates, to adjust to their new limit on what they can afford.
The positive take away is that with falling home prices even though the maximum you can borrow (or afford) has gone down the price of the properties you are interested in has also gone down. Impact on Housing Supply:
Higher interest rates can also impact the supply of homes on the market. When interest rates rise, homeowners may be less likely to refinance their mortgages, as the cost of borrowing money becomes more expensive. This can reduce the supply of homes on the market, as homeowners are less likely to sell their properties in order to take advantage of lower interest rates.
Overall, rising interest rates can have a negative impact on the real estate market, as they can lead to a decrease in both demand and supply for properties. This can result in lower prices for homes and a slower pace of sales activity.
However, it’s important to note that interest rates are just one factor that can affect the real estate market, and there are many other variables at play as well
When Will They Stop?
While not an economist and with no insider information I do personally believe that the Bank of Canada will stop the rising interest rates early in 2023. It is my prediction that by December 2023 the rates will be lower than they currently are now in December of 2022.
I feel like by this time next year rates are going to be lower than they are now because the raising of the interest rates has done its job. Our market certainly has slowed down. Prices have corrected.
By unduly continuing to raise rates the Bank of Canada will put people under more financial pressure. Canada has a robust economy and as much as we tend to compare ourselves to United States, we are a very different country.
Over my career I have worked through three major market corrections. Real estate is cyclical. The market is cyclical. It always comes back to value. And I feel our region is still undervalued.
Impact on our local Real Estate Market:
I am optimistic. Optimistic that we are reaching the bottom of this correction. My last blog post explained the reasons why I see brighter days ahead for our local Real Estate market: supply and demand, lifestyle changes, and investment in our Region.
Hamilton and its surrounding areas have some additional built-in insulation to overall National Real Estate Market fluctuations. Our geographical location and our vibrant and diverse economy result in our region being one of best places to invest in all of Canada.
While there has been a significant price adjustment down 25% from the peak in February it is important to note that as of December, prices are still 16% higher than pre-pandemic values. On an annual basis, prices are still almost 10% higher when compared to 2021.
Click here for a refresh or first time read of the Fall 2022 Real Estate Forecast.
Buyers:
Properties are on sale. For most new listings coming onto the market sellers now know that they need to price realistically to have any hope of selling and staying competitive.
Most listings that have been exposed to the market that have not sold right away have seen price reductions (or multiple reductions) over the past few months. With over 400 listings currently on the market for OVER 100 days– this is a good time to buy!
There are fewer active buyers out there, so this is your chance! Sure, there may be a further reduction of 5-7% give or take, but if you can afford it (after calculating your new affordability) then maybe now is the time to start to take advantage of this more relaxed buying experience, something most of our buyers haven’t seen for almost 3 years now.
Sellers:
The market certainly has spoken. The public (and more importantly your buyers) do not care what the house down the street sold for in February. This is the new reality. So make sure you price accordingly.
As mentioned above there are fewer buyers out there. And as a result, listings are sitting on the market for longer. As a seller you must price for this new market on you run the risk of getting lost in the sea of Active Listings in the region, or even worse, Buyers ‘assuming’ there must be something wrong with your property because it STILL hasn’t sold…
Keep in mind, it is not all doom and gloom. I have had a few experiences these past months where when priced accordingly we sold quickly and in some cases with multiple offers and over our realistic asking price. Adjust your expectations. Align yourself with an Agent that knows the market. Set yourself up for success.
Proceed with Caution: We do have balance in the market right now. This is the most balanced market I have ever experienced in my 13+ years. As mentioned, listings are sitting on the market for much longer than usual. If we have a flurry of new listings in the new year and buyers do not start to purchase those listings – the market could flood further. This would have a further downward effect on home prices.
Balance is a Good Thing: A balanced market consists of only one home selling for every three homes that come onto the market. For the last 20 years we have been closer to a one to one ratio than three to one ratio. Balance is good for everybody, buyers and sellers alike.
The crazy prices that sellers were getting over the last couple years? Those sellers still had to pay those crazy prices for the homes they were buying.
Balance is better for everyone. The ability to have conditions in an offer, to make sure that you can actually afford what you’re offering on, to be able to have an inspection to ensure what you’re buying is structurally sound, and importantly the ability to sell your current home, if you have a home to sell.
These conditions benefit both the buyer AND the seller by creating further confidence in the sale. While it’s not a perfect world and things happen from time to time on closing day, allowing for these conditions reduces the risk of failure to close and the snowball effect that can be caused on both sides of the transaction.
Buyers and Sellers: We will move forward and navigate this market together. There is never any pressure. We will move at your pace and comfort level. It is a process that works best with a partnership and I am here to guide, to share my knowledge, and most importantly, to help.
Reach out anytime – I am always happy to chat Real Estate.
